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NBC Massages Poll Results to Show Obama Leading in Key Swing States
by
Mike Flynn
NBC, soon to be joined by the rest of the media, is swooning over three new polls that all show Obama edging Mitt Romney in the critical swing states of Ohio, Virginia and Florida. The leads are very slim: 4 points in Virginia and Florida and 6 points in Ohio. And, leads have dropped considerably since March. Still, the NBC/Marist poll is the first bit of good news the Obama campaign has had in a few weeks. Too bad NBC had to massage the numbers a bit to get there.
First, all of these polls are of registered voters, rather than adults or likely voters. As we've discussed, that implies a 4% bias for Democrats, which effectively makes the race in these states ties. There are however legitimate reasons to poll only registered voters this early out, so that isn't in any way cheating.The cheating part comes in how to "weight" the sample to make it fit the pollster assumptions about the electorate. The pollster, ideally, would like the sample to match the partisan make-up he expects in the coming election. If you over- or under-sample one party, this will skew the results. Boy, were the results skewed.
In the Florida poll, the partisan screen of the sample was D-43, R-35, I-21. Yes, that's right. The pollster assumes that 43% of the voters showing up on election day will be Democrats. In 2008, the absolute high-water mark of the Obama candidacy, when he narrowly won Florida, the partisan breakdown was D-37, R-34, I-29. Does NBC really think that, since 2008, there has been such a massive shift to Democrats? Is that reflected anywhere in the country except the studios of MSNBC? Read More
Bill Clinton's glamorous fundraiser called "worst party ever" by angry guests
An exclusive event hosted by Bill Clinton and attended by a host of celebrity friends has been criticized after guests who paid up to £1,000 for tickets were left queuing outside for hours.
Hosted by Bill Clinton (right), the night was attended by actress Gwyneth Paltrow (left) Photo: Rex
Attendees complained the underground venue “stank”, with perspiration
“dripping off the walls” and the rooms too crowded to even see the former
president.
One, who called it the “worst party ever” described how “angry people” were
waiting in the queue outside while high-profile guests were admitted, and
another condemned the event as “unpleasant”.
The evening had been intended as a fundraising event for the Clinton
Foundation Millennium Network, which was set up to “encourage the next
generation to address global challenges”.
Hosted by Bill Clinton and his daughter Chelsea, the night was attended by
actress Gwyneth Paltrow, model Lily Cole, performer Will.I.Am and Princess
Beatrice.
Glamorous photographs of the event document Clinton’s short speech addressing
the issue of climate change, as well smartly-dressed attendees enjoying
themselves.
A standard ticket to the event cost £125, with some understood to have paid up
to £1,000 for a chance to meet the politician. Read MoreReal federal deficit dwarfs official tally
The typical American household would have
paid nearly all of its income in taxes last year to balance the budget
if the government used standard accounting rules to compute the deficit,
a USA TODAY analysis finds
Under
those accounting practices, the government ran red ink last year equal
to $42,054 per household — nearly four times the official number
reported under unique rules set by Congress.
A U.S. household's median income is $49,445, the Census reports.
The
big difference between the official deficit and standard accounting:
Congress exempts itself from including the cost of promised retirement
benefits. Yet companies, states and local governments must include
retirement commitments in financial statements, as required by federal
law and private boards that set accounting rules.
The deficit was $5 trillion last year under those rules. The official number was $1.3 trillion. Liabilities for Social Security,
Medicare and other retirement programs rose by $3.7 trillion in 2011,
according to government actuaries, but the amount was not registered on
the government's books. Read More